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Monday, November 28, 2011

A Cursory Appreciation of Cameroon’s 2012 Budget


*By AYAH Paul ABINE
Hon.Ayah Paul
 The 2012 budget is prepared against the backcloth of the presidential declaration that Cameroon will be transformed into a huge construction site (“grandes realisations”) as early as January, 2012. The translation into reality of this dream should be contingent on huge investments. In other words, the investment budget must climb vertically.
 But the present investment budget (792 billions) as against that of 2011 (677 billions) has increased only by around 17%. The global ratio of investment budget, (including the projected treasury bonds of 250 billions) to the recurrent budget is less than 1:3 and stands at about 28.3%. It stands to reason that it is an over-statement to hold that a difference of 115 billion (to the exclusion of treasury bonds) will produce the miracle.
 What is more, there seems to be an over-confident reliance on international market forces whish fall beyond our control. It is hoped for instance that a barrel of petrol will sell at 100 dollars; and that the exchange rate will be 464 francs to the dollar. No presidential decree will make this happen – only the market forces, which are beyond our control.

It is even more incomprehensible that at a time that custom duties on petroleum products are reduced by 50%, we should expect 557 billions in the domain. Nor are we told the foundation for such expectation when we have been told all along that the mainstay of our economy is agriculture and not petrol. Are new wells discovered and the pumping of oil is ongoing? Until these doubts are cleared, one may daresay that the 2012 budget seems unrealistic.  
 Noteworthy is the deficit of 250 billions in the resources of the 2012 budget, corresponding to the issuance of treasury bonds. While this amount is counted as part of the resources for 2012, the projects on which these resources are to be spent have not been spelt out in the finance Bill.  This is tantamount to the National Assembly giving the Executive a blank cheque. That, strictly speaking, is not in conformity with the legal stipulation that financial matters are within the exclusive jurisdiction of the Legislature.
 Nor has the new presentation of the budget helped matters. There are similar global appropriations in the Ministry of Public Works without the spelling out of the specific projects against specific allocations. Just like authorizing the Executive to supplant the Legislature! This too is inconsistent with the law.

Even where there are specifications, contradictions are apparent. Of the increase of 7 billions in the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture, (the mainstay of our economy), for instance, only one billion is appropriated for investment. This is absolutely tricky when one considers that, in contrast to agriculture, investment in the so-called “grand projets” will impact the economy only in several years to come. That sits awkwardly with our vaunted emergence from structural adjustment into economic growth
 Difficult too it is to bring one’s mind to the contention that the budget seeks to improve “the living conditions of the population”. Conditions central to good living are good health, food, potable water, electricity, roads etc. Apart from some increase in Agriculture and Public Works, there is remarkable decrease in the investment budgets of Water Resources and Power, and of Public Health. It is of course factual that treasury bonds will set the ball rolling towards “grandes realisations”, especially in the Ministry of Water Resources and Power. But the benefits are lumped into some hypothetical future.
 It therefore goes without saying that living conditions in 2012 will improve little without immediate access to water and electricity; or to good health. Equally would increase in agricultural produce impact the population little without sustained effort in the building of roads in general, and particularly farm-to-market roads. Sadly, one is unable to foresee any major opening up of the countryside with the grossly insignificant increase of 25 billions in the investment budget of the Ministry of Public Works. The hope, perhaps, is that treasury bonds will play the trick here as well. Yet are we skeptical as we are still to see the concrete effect of the treasury bonds of last year. All the Minister of Finance tells Cameroonians with empty arrogance is that the bonds for independent Cameroon’s development are in a bank in Paris.
 Yes, the ordinary Cameroonian once coined the expression “Brasseries do Cameroon”. Time has given that coinage proof. And the dessert is the current coinage “Paris must use Cameroon” – PMUC. (You are free to laugh even in your dire misery or affluence!)
 On the whole, there is little departure from waste in the current budget. As against 2011, one finds, with substantial disappointment, that waste has even increase. It is no overstatement to assert that no country going after the fleece of development would consume over 70% of its resources and plough less than 30% in investment projects. It is all the worse that huge resources are dissipated in duplicity and opacity, or wasted on luxury and ostentations.
 A question has been asked ineffectually about who the manager of the budgetary chapter styled “Depenses Communes” is, and what the purpose of the said chapter is. If, as it appears, the manager is the Ministry of Finance – (it is that ministry that paid out money from that chapter to the presidential candidates of the last election) – how does anyone explain that that ministry has two budgets a year? What is the justification for that ministry to have, for instance, 1,368.3 million for fuel as the Ministry of Finance plus 1,129.0 million under “Depenses Communes”; and then similarly 2285.6 million for entertainment plus  3 874.2 million under “Depenses Communes”? Could some scientist tell Cameroonians how many youth would be employed on 100.000 per month for ten years from the sum of 8.654 billions?

And a fact of great notoriety it is already that ELECAM has exclusive jurisdiction in the management of appropriations for elections. Its budget for 2012 elections has risen by 500 million to a total of 11.5 billions. But by characteristic duplication, the very sum of 20 billions for “Elections” in the 2011 budget under “Depenses Communes” has similarly been maintained in the 2012 budget. If questions are raised today about the propriety in the use of over 19 billions of the 20 billions in 2011, there is little ground to suppose that there will be any more transparency this time around. And that is the typical opacity surrounding appropriations under “Depenses Communes”.

Tell me then who is that patriotic Cameroonian who can help getting blinded by tears seeing that the total appropriation under “Depenses Communes” has risen from 136 billions for 2011 to 164 billions in 2012 even in the face of all the hardship ordinary Cameroonians face! Even in the face of the official admission that Cameroonians have for decades made enormous sacrifices under structural adjustment in the hope of seeing the light at the end of the tunnel soonest!
 Verily, I say unto you: Cameroon is truly a heavily-indebted POOR country! It is no answer that some countries south of the Sahara with monoculture of as little economic value as groundnuts or cotton are forging ahead while Cameroon stagnates amid heavy and varied endowments of natural resources. Do you call it “inertia”? Then the vampire has eaten up our cocoa, coffee, banana, rubber, palm-trees, tea, groundnut, cotton and you name the rest. Whatever your thought, “Depenses Communes” is the veritable coffin.
 Wipe those tears and see just again what is set aside for special Cameroonians. I suppose the table below admits of no further explanation. One may only permit oneself to state here that the budget of the Secretary General at the Presidency for fuel has been maintained at 922 million for 2012. Simple calculation would show that his average daily expenditure on fuel, including Sundays and public holidays, stands at approximately 2.53 million. God save our souls! Is that not too minimal for a heavily-indebted POOR country, brethren!
You may however wish to just imagine that the appropriations for entertainment and fuel as per below were cut by only half. I bet anyone that other cuts operated on our recurrent budget would make the fatherland an emergent state within five years! As it is, those fantastic appropriations are the gaping grave awaiting coffins!

ENTERTAINMENT… & FUEL APPROPRIATIONS
No
DEPARTMENT
Entertainment…
in millions
Fuel…
in millions
01
PRESIDENCY
8 691.5
3 832.0
02
-Attached services
1 043.1
273.5
03
Prime Minister
1 662.4
345.0
04
Social/Econ Council
175.0
34.0
05
External Relations
1 568.7
562.1
06
Justice
697.5
274.9
07
Supreme Court
351.0
171.0
08
State Control
732.5
275.0
09
National Security
1 866.0
2 313.8
10
Defence
2 657.4
8 206.2
11
MINATD
737.3
458.0
12
Finance
2 285.6
1 368.3
13
Economy, Planning...
1 366.1
477.4
14
Public service
232.4
74.4
15
Basic Education
1 890.9
363.4
16
Higher Education
382.4
657.0
17
Scientific Research…
368.0
113.0
18
Secondary Education
3 055.8
613.3
19
Commerce
569.5
257.5
20
Tourism
267.2
125.9
21
Environment…
667.5
305.8
22
Industries, Mines…
527.0
205.5
23
Agriculture…
2 329.2
1 259.0
24
Livestock, Fishery…
655.2
316.1
25
Forestry…
1 708.0
893.4
26
Small Enterprises…
590.0
219.0
27
Public Health
1 804.9
827.2
28
Culture
319.0
127.0
29
Sports…
7 387.0
154.5
30
Communication
350.2
64.3
31
Youth Affaires
652.6
51.7
32
Employment…
355.7
53.0
33
Labour…
380.7
90.4
34
Social Affaires
304.9
96.8
35
Women’s Empower…
388.6
92.2
36
Water… & Power
570.6
392.4
37
Public Works
1 652.5
1 328.0
38
State Property…
390.3
65.0
39
Urban Development…
1 141.4
838.3
40
Post & Telecomm
233.6
197.8
41
State Intervention
130.0
120.0
42
Common Expenditure
3 874.2
1 129.0
43

Total
57 013.4
29 622.1

NB:-
Total: entertainment + fuel (57 013.4 + 29 622.1) = 86 635.5 millions. If in 2010 the total for entertainment and fuel was upwards of 102 000 millions, adding the increase in “Depenses Communes” of 28,000 millions, (as between 2011 and 2012), to the above total amounts to 114.6 millions. It simply means that waste since 2010 has remained on the rise. So too has remained the unemployment of the youth. What’s the remedy?
 You may however wish to just imagine that the appropriations for entertainment and fuel as per below were cut by only half. I bet anyone that other cuts operated on our recurrent budget would make the fatherland an emergent state within five years! As it is, those fantastic appropriations are the gaping grave awaiting coffins!



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